It's time to take a look at what the Rams might do with their first round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, the #15 overall selection. Some teams steadfastly adhere to a best player available (BPA) strategy, while others take into account their team's needs a little bit more. In looking at recent history, the Rams took Todd Gurley last year at #10 overall; some considered it a reach, but they had him as the #1 player on their draft board, so that was clearly a BPA pick. (And Tre Mason was coming off a solid rookie season where he averaged 4.3 YPC.) The team
definitely reached on Oregon State's Sean Mannion in the third round last year; there's no way the signal-caller was the BPA at that time, but the lack of QB depth on the roster caused them to draft for need in that spot. And in the 2014 Draft, the Rams had two first round picks, at #2 and #13 overall. At #2 they took offensive tackle Greg Robinson, which was their top-rated player and also happened to fill a need; at #13 they took defensive tackle Aaron Donald, which added to an already talent-laden defensive front. In looking at the Rams right now, the strength of their team is still that defensive front. So would they actually take
another defensive lineman in the 2016 Draft, despite other clear areas of need? If a D-lineman were the BPA, I don't think you can completely rule it out. That said, let's take a look at the most likely areas that the Rams will be looking to with the #15 pick, safe in the knowledge that they won't be taking another RB here (sorry, Ezekiel Elliot fans).
It's certainly no secret that the Rams are in obvious need of a franchise QB, and I discussed at length some potential options in my previous article. Although there's a strong chance that Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Paxton Lynch will all be gone by pick #15, you would have to think that the Rams would think long and hard about drafting one of them if they were still available. It would simply come down to their draft grade on each player. If only one of these guys were left and the Rams did not have a high grade on the player, I don't think they would pull the trigger here, and rightfully so. If they didn't think there was a large gap between whichever guy was left and the next tier of QB's, the smart thing to do would be to take the BPA and then perhaps look at QB with one of their two second-round picks. The next potential tier of QB's include Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, and perhaps Cardale Jones (who will probably be a polarizing prospect).
Finding the right solution at QB is the most important order of business for the Rams, but not far behind is the need for a trusted pass-catching option. The Rams do not have anyone on their roster that is a player that you can rely on when it's 3rd down and it's time to move the chains, or when they are in the red zone and need a TD. It's great that they seemed to figure out how to deploy Tavon Austin last season, but he's a gadget player and not a receiver that you can depend on to run savvy routes on 3rd and 7 time after time, nor does he have the ideal size to fight for tightly-contested catches in close quarters. As for the other WR's on the roster, with apologies to Kenny Britt and Bradley Marquez, they aren't close to dependable options. At TE, Lance Kendricks is more of a blocker, and Jared Cook has been a colossal bust and will almost certainly be cut. In looking at the draft, it's important to note that the tight end position is often considered to be the most difficult transition from college to the NFL, and that rookie tight ends very, very rarely make a noticeable impact.
In addition, I haven't seen a single mock draft where a TE is taken in the first round. (I have seen Arkansas TE Hunter Henry mocked in the second round, sometimes to the Rams in fact, but he's not realistically in play at #15.) Therefore, for the purpose of this exercise, let's talk about the WR's that could be available at #15.
Laquon Treadwell, out of Ole Miss, had a fantastic 2015 season in college, which was no small feat. I say this because he suffered a pretty gruesome injury in November of 2014. If you're a college football fan, you might remember him getting awkwardly tackled from behind at the 1-yard line late in that game against Auburn, causing a broken tibia and dislocated ankle. But the 20-year-old junior came back with a vengeance last year, reeling in 82 passes for 1,153 yards and 11 TD's. At 6'2 and 220 pounds, he has ideal size to make contested, jump ball-type of catches, and he certainly profiles as an ideal red zone target. He made plenty of big plays down the field despite his lack of blazing speed, too. The biggest knocks on him are the lack of speed, and that some scouts think he may not be able to separate at the NFL level. I've seen a lot of Dez Bryant comparisons when it comes to Treadwell, but I've also seen some Kenny Britt comparisons from detractors. I don't consider this to be a bad thing; Britt was really starting to come into his own in the NFL, before his own knee injury (he's never been the same since). At 20 years old--he won't turn 21 until June--Treadwell might still have some untapped upside. And I would be remiss if I failed to mention that recent WR's with prolific production in the SEC have gone on to look good in the NFL: Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, and Mike Evans are all examples.
If you want to talk about
really prolific production, look no further than Baylor's Corey Coleman. The 21-year-old redshirt junior (who turns 22 in July) pulled down 74 passes for 1,363 yards in 2015, including a whopping 20 TD's. And he was on a pace even more scintillating than that, before Baylor suffered injuries to both its starting and second-string QB's. Coleman is not big like Treadwell, as he is 5'11 and about 190 pounds. But he is lightning-quick and super-fast, and with his size, scouts most optimistic about him see a lot of Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown in his game. In the NFL, Beckham and Brown have had no problem being go-to pass-catchers, guys that are capable of running crisp routes to move the chains on 3rd downs, as well as getting deep for big plays. At Baylor, Coleman certainly was a terror both near the line of scrimmage and deep down the field, too. He's known as a tough competitor that fights for the football in tight spots. And he wasn't just a one-year college wonder; in 2014 as a redshirt sophomore, he had 64 catches for 1,119 yards and 11 TD's. Detractors might point to the Baylor offense for propping up offensive statistics, but if Coleman were 6'2 instead of 5'11, he would probably be the consensus #1 WR on the board. He's likely to see his stock rise after the Draft combine, as he has previously run a 4.38 40-yard time, and he has a recorded time of 6.62 seconds in the three-cone drill; that time would have beaten every WR at last year's combine. Oh, and he has a 40-inch vertical leap, as well.
Ohio State's Michael Thomas (a local product out of Taft High School in Woodland Hills) could be another possibility at #15 if the Rams go with a WR. A 21-year-old who turns 22 in August, Thomas, like Treadwell, has ideal size that most NFL teams covet. Thomas, at 6'3 and 210 pounds, has drawn comparisons from scouts to another Thomas...Demaryius Thomas. Both guys are big WR's that have the ability to pick up yards after the catch due to quick bursts of acceleration, particularly on short passes near the line of scrimmage. Playing in Urban Meyer's run-based offense, Thomas didn't have the chances to put up the kind of huge numbers that some others did. Nevertheless, he still managed 56 receptions for 781 yards and 9 TD's in 2015. His 2014 was quite similar, with 54 receptions for 799 yards and 9 TD's.
One final WR that could draw the Rams' interest at #15 is TCU's Josh Doctson. He combines the height of Treadwell and Thomas (Doctson is 6'3 and 195 pounds) with the productivity of Treadwell and Coleman, as Doctson posted 79 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 TD's in 2015 for the Horned Frogs. He's also similar to Treadwell in that he's not a speed demon and won't be breaking any records at the 40-yard dash at the Combine. That said, he's drawn some DeAndre Hopkins comparisons from scouts, who note that Doctson, despite that blazing speed, has good hands, good ball skills, and good route-running and separation skills. Like Coleman, Doctson will have those who say that he's racked up numbers in the souped-up offenses of the Big 12, and another thing to consider is that Doctson is going to be 23 this year, making him a little bit older than the typical rookie.
While I suppose you can't rule it out, it's not likely that the Rams will use the #15 overall pick on an offensive lineman. Greg Robinson has had his ups and downs in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, but the Rams aren't about to give up on his potential, and he doesn't even turn 24 until October. He'll be at left tackle again in 2016. As for right tackle, the Rams look like they hit a home run (or at least a triple) with Rob Havenstein, a fine pick by GM Les Snead in the second round in last year's draft. Havenstein was a mauling run blocker in his rookie season (proudly carrying on the Wisconsin tradition of offensive linemen), and not only that, he didn't allow a single sack in pass protection all season. So while it's possible that a top offensive tackle could fall to #15, given the presence of Robinson and Havenstein, it's highly unlikely that the Rams go O-Line here. Laremy Tunsil, the consensus top tackle, is not going to fall to #15, and with so many other needs, and youth entrenched at LT and RT, it just wouldn't be wise to pick a tackle here. So the question becomes, could a guard (or center) be in play with this pick? I'll keep this short: the answer is "very unlikely." Kansas State's Cody Whitehair and LSU's Vadal Alexander are the only players (both guards) who are anywhere close to Round 1 in all of the mock drafts that I have seen. It's much more likely that the Rams would look at guards or centers later in the draft, as well as in free agency.
Now we're getting into the defensive side of the ball, which was the strength of the team last season. The strong pass rush from the defensive line was not a surprise, of course, but the Rams played much-improved pass defense last season, too. But both starting cornerbacks, Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, are free agents. And while one of them could be retained via the franchise tag (or, perhaps, the transition tag), it's very possible that both of them won't be back. The Rams do have E.J. Gaines coming back from a foot injury, and he'll be available (barring another injury) in 2016; he started 15 games as a rookie in 2014. They also have Lamarcus Joyner, who is a slot cornerback/safety. In looking at the safety position, T.J. McDonald will be back as a starter at strong safety, but the team could have a need for a starting free safety. Jalen Ramsey (Florida State, S/CB) and Vernon Hargreaves (CB, Florida) seem quite likely to be gone by #15, but perhaps the Rams could fall in love with Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander or Ohio State CB Eli Apple. All in all, barring a fall for Hargreaves or a rise from Alexander, choosing a DB at #15 seems unlikely.
The Rams are pretty well-stocked at linebacker, with the likes of Alec Ogletree, James Laurinaitis, and Akeem Ayers. But Laurinatitis will be 30 in December, and while he's due a reasonable $5.8MM for 2016, it's worth noting that he's due $6.1MM in 2017
and a $2MM roster bonus as well. In other words, if there were a highly-regarded linebacker that's a tackling machine that is available at pick #15, perhaps the Rams would take a look at that, with an eye towards replacing Laurinaitis in 2017. With UCLA's Myles Jack almost certain to go in the top 10, the immediate name that comes to mind, whom I have seen mocked just after the Rams choose at #15, is Alabama's Reggie Ragland. Notre Dame fans can tell you that Jaylon Smith, who won the Butkus Award as college football's best linebacker, probably would have been a top 10 pick in the draft, if not for that serious knee injury he suffered in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State. He's still very likely to be a first rounder, even though he's not likely to play until late in the 2016 season, at best. He would essentially be taking a redshirt year if the Rams took him, so I view that as incredibly unlikely, but the upside is undeniable. So, too, is the downside, coming off his injury.
- The Defensive Linemen/Edge Rushers
Ah, yes. Finally, we've come to the area where the Rams are loaded the most. At first glance, this seems crazy, right? The Rams, a team with Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn (and Chris Long and William Hayes and Nick Fairley), taking a defensive lineman? Really? Clearly, if they took one in this year's draft, that player wouldn't get much playing time in 2016, barring injury. It would be a move for the future, and it's obvious that the Rams believe in having a strong defensive line. Donald and Quinn are locked up to long-term deals, but Brockers is a free agent after the 2016 season. Fairley and Hayes are free agents right now, and as for Long, he's due an untenable $14.25MM in 2016, and if they released him, it would only leave a $2.5MM dead money hit on the salary cap. It's possible Long could be brought back at a reduced rate, but there's no way he's getting that $14.25MM, given that he lost his starting job to Hayes in 2015.
So perhaps beefing up the D-line isn't such an outlandish idea to the Rams. And there are an abundance of quality D-linemen and edge rushers in this draft, so if that's the direction the Rams really want to go, there will be quality available at #15. Ohio State's Joey Bosa will be long-gone by #15, and Oregon's DeForest Buckner is very likely to be, as well. If defensive end Noah Spence is available, he will be an interesting case for the Rams. He played in 2015 at Eastern Kentucky, but some will remember that he formerly played for Ohio State before he was suspended indefinitely by the Big 10 for failing two drug tests, prompting his transfer to Eastern Kentucky. On game tape alone, Spence is a top-10 talent. But the character concerns are obvious here (he also didn't endear himself to many in the NFL community with his Senior Bowl interviews). That said, we've seen that the Rams are willing to take chances on players. They did it with Janoris Jenkins, and they even did it with Michael Sam (different reasons for both, but you get the idea). Ohio State's Darron Lee, Georgia's Leonard Floyd, Clemson's Shaq Lawson, and Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah have great potential as pass rushers. And if you love defensive tackles, well, this draft is loaded with them. Alabama's A'Shawn Robinson has a decent chance to go in the top 10, and I could see the Rams being intrigued by Baylor's Andrew Billings. Billings has enormous upside, as he doesn't even turn 21 until next month, and, as I said, the Rams would not be choosing a D-lineman at #15 with the idea that such a player would be a major contributor in 2016. Another pick that would not lack in controversy would be Ole Miss' Robert Nkemdiche, whom many thought was a shoo-in to be chosen among the top five picks of the draft in the middle of the college football season. But an odd incident in December has potentially hurt his stock, where Nkemdiche fell from a hotel window, apparently under the influence of marijuana, and was charged with drug possession. (For the record, I can't see how Nkemdiche slips past the Rex Ryan-led Buffalo Bills at #19.) Other DT's that stand strong chances to be first round picks include another Alabama product, Jarran Reed, Louisville's Sheldon Rankins, and UCLA's Kenny Clark.
Certainly, the Rams will have a lot to consider when their turn comes up at #15 in the first round (assuming that there's no trade). There's a lot of merit to the BPA strategy, and if the Rams do take a D-lineman, it's obvious that it's a look to their future. But I believe it's important to consider that this Rams team, under Jeff Fisher, has not been able to get over the hump. They have built a very good defense under his watch, which he deserves much of the credit for. But they have gone 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10 and 7-9, in order, in his 4 seasons as head coach. If they take a D-lineman at #15, they are essentially punting their first round pick, in terms of 2016 impact, to 2017. In my judgment, I don't think they can afford to do that. They have glaring needs at QB and WR, and if players at those positions are at least close to the BPA, I think that's the prudent course of action.
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