I wrote recently that TE Jared Cook was a no-brainer to get cut, and that DE Chris Long was also not long (see what I did there?) for the roster in 2016. Indeed, both players were cut today, but the mild surprise is the release of MLB James Laurinaitis. I spoke of how Laurinaitis was going to turn 30 in December and that, perhaps, his salary for 2017 would be too prohibitive, and that it wouldn't be out of the question for the team to use the #15 overall pick on a linebacker, with an eye on replacing him. But the Rams decided that the Ohio State product was expendable even for 2016, and so the man who played 99.7% of the Rams' defensive snaps in his career will be playing elsewhere.
ESPN NFL Nation reporter Nick Wagoner believes that the Rams will now move Alec Ogletree to MLB (that's middle linebacker; Ogletree is not getting moved to major league baseball), and attempt to re-sign Mark Barron to play weak-side linebacker. Barron, of course, was drafted by Tampa Bay at safety, but never quite lived up to expectations there. He fared better with the Rams, who used him in more of a linebacker/safety hybrid role. The Rams, I'm sure, are hoping that moving Ogletree inside will result in something similar to the positive effect that moving Clay Matthews inside had on the Green Bay defense. In looking at my last article, on the subject of potential linebackers in the draft, perhaps the chances of drafting a guy like Alabama's Reggie Ragland at #15 just went up ever-so-slightly, although I still view that as unlikely.
The moves by the Rams today cleared about $24MM in cap room, and the team is well-positioned heading into free agency, with more than $50MM in total cap space now. It will be interesting to see how the team attacks free agency. There's a vacancy for a starting safety; could the Rams ask Eric Weddle, late of the Chargers, to move just a little bit north? The interior of the offensive line could use improving, and the top free agent guard available is Kelechi Osemele of the Ravens, who is still just 26 years old. The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiek notes that the Ravens will have a hard time re-signing Osemele at the price he will command, and that if they do pony up for him, it will likely come at the expense of releasing LT Eugene Monroe. It's also worth noting that NFL Network's Ian Rapoport tweeted today "there's a chance" that the Bears don't apply the franchise tag to WR Alshon Jeffery. I still have a hard time imagining this, but if this does indeed happen, and Jeffery hits the open market, the Rams should run, not walk, to his agent with an offer.
L.A. Ramifications
Friday, February 19, 2016
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Another Defensive Lineman at #15?
It's time to take a look at what the Rams might do with their first round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, the #15 overall selection. Some teams steadfastly adhere to a best player available (BPA) strategy, while others take into account their team's needs a little bit more. In looking at recent history, the Rams took Todd Gurley last year at #10 overall; some considered it a reach, but they had him as the #1 player on their draft board, so that was clearly a BPA pick. (And Tre Mason was coming off a solid rookie season where he averaged 4.3 YPC.) The team definitely reached on Oregon State's Sean Mannion in the third round last year; there's no way the signal-caller was the BPA at that time, but the lack of QB depth on the roster caused them to draft for need in that spot. And in the 2014 Draft, the Rams had two first round picks, at #2 and #13 overall. At #2 they took offensive tackle Greg Robinson, which was their top-rated player and also happened to fill a need; at #13 they took defensive tackle Aaron Donald, which added to an already talent-laden defensive front. In looking at the Rams right now, the strength of their team is still that defensive front. So would they actually take another defensive lineman in the 2016 Draft, despite other clear areas of need? If a D-lineman were the BPA, I don't think you can completely rule it out. That said, let's take a look at the most likely areas that the Rams will be looking to with the #15 pick, safe in the knowledge that they won't be taking another RB here (sorry, Ezekiel Elliot fans).
Laquon Treadwell, out of Ole Miss, had a fantastic 2015 season in college, which was no small feat. I say this because he suffered a pretty gruesome injury in November of 2014. If you're a college football fan, you might remember him getting awkwardly tackled from behind at the 1-yard line late in that game against Auburn, causing a broken tibia and dislocated ankle. But the 20-year-old junior came back with a vengeance last year, reeling in 82 passes for 1,153 yards and 11 TD's. At 6'2 and 220 pounds, he has ideal size to make contested, jump ball-type of catches, and he certainly profiles as an ideal red zone target. He made plenty of big plays down the field despite his lack of blazing speed, too. The biggest knocks on him are the lack of speed, and that some scouts think he may not be able to separate at the NFL level. I've seen a lot of Dez Bryant comparisons when it comes to Treadwell, but I've also seen some Kenny Britt comparisons from detractors. I don't consider this to be a bad thing; Britt was really starting to come into his own in the NFL, before his own knee injury (he's never been the same since). At 20 years old--he won't turn 21 until June--Treadwell might still have some untapped upside. And I would be remiss if I failed to mention that recent WR's with prolific production in the SEC have gone on to look good in the NFL: Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, and Mike Evans are all examples.
If you want to talk about really prolific production, look no further than Baylor's Corey Coleman. The 21-year-old redshirt junior (who turns 22 in July) pulled down 74 passes for 1,363 yards in 2015, including a whopping 20 TD's. And he was on a pace even more scintillating than that, before Baylor suffered injuries to both its starting and second-string QB's. Coleman is not big like Treadwell, as he is 5'11 and about 190 pounds. But he is lightning-quick and super-fast, and with his size, scouts most optimistic about him see a lot of Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown in his game. In the NFL, Beckham and Brown have had no problem being go-to pass-catchers, guys that are capable of running crisp routes to move the chains on 3rd downs, as well as getting deep for big plays. At Baylor, Coleman certainly was a terror both near the line of scrimmage and deep down the field, too. He's known as a tough competitor that fights for the football in tight spots. And he wasn't just a one-year college wonder; in 2014 as a redshirt sophomore, he had 64 catches for 1,119 yards and 11 TD's. Detractors might point to the Baylor offense for propping up offensive statistics, but if Coleman were 6'2 instead of 5'11, he would probably be the consensus #1 WR on the board. He's likely to see his stock rise after the Draft combine, as he has previously run a 4.38 40-yard time, and he has a recorded time of 6.62 seconds in the three-cone drill; that time would have beaten every WR at last year's combine. Oh, and he has a 40-inch vertical leap, as well.
Ohio State's Michael Thomas (a local product out of Taft High School in Woodland Hills) could be another possibility at #15 if the Rams go with a WR. A 21-year-old who turns 22 in August, Thomas, like Treadwell, has ideal size that most NFL teams covet. Thomas, at 6'3 and 210 pounds, has drawn comparisons from scouts to another Thomas...Demaryius Thomas. Both guys are big WR's that have the ability to pick up yards after the catch due to quick bursts of acceleration, particularly on short passes near the line of scrimmage. Playing in Urban Meyer's run-based offense, Thomas didn't have the chances to put up the kind of huge numbers that some others did. Nevertheless, he still managed 56 receptions for 781 yards and 9 TD's in 2015. His 2014 was quite similar, with 54 receptions for 799 yards and 9 TD's.
One final WR that could draw the Rams' interest at #15 is TCU's Josh Doctson. He combines the height of Treadwell and Thomas (Doctson is 6'3 and 195 pounds) with the productivity of Treadwell and Coleman, as Doctson posted 79 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 TD's in 2015 for the Horned Frogs. He's also similar to Treadwell in that he's not a speed demon and won't be breaking any records at the 40-yard dash at the Combine. That said, he's drawn some DeAndre Hopkins comparisons from scouts, who note that Doctson, despite that blazing speed, has good hands, good ball skills, and good route-running and separation skills. Like Coleman, Doctson will have those who say that he's racked up numbers in the souped-up offenses of the Big 12, and another thing to consider is that Doctson is going to be 23 this year, making him a little bit older than the typical rookie.
So perhaps beefing up the D-line isn't such an outlandish idea to the Rams. And there are an abundance of quality D-linemen and edge rushers in this draft, so if that's the direction the Rams really want to go, there will be quality available at #15. Ohio State's Joey Bosa will be long-gone by #15, and Oregon's DeForest Buckner is very likely to be, as well. If defensive end Noah Spence is available, he will be an interesting case for the Rams. He played in 2015 at Eastern Kentucky, but some will remember that he formerly played for Ohio State before he was suspended indefinitely by the Big 10 for failing two drug tests, prompting his transfer to Eastern Kentucky. On game tape alone, Spence is a top-10 talent. But the character concerns are obvious here (he also didn't endear himself to many in the NFL community with his Senior Bowl interviews). That said, we've seen that the Rams are willing to take chances on players. They did it with Janoris Jenkins, and they even did it with Michael Sam (different reasons for both, but you get the idea). Ohio State's Darron Lee, Georgia's Leonard Floyd, Clemson's Shaq Lawson, and Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah have great potential as pass rushers. And if you love defensive tackles, well, this draft is loaded with them. Alabama's A'Shawn Robinson has a decent chance to go in the top 10, and I could see the Rams being intrigued by Baylor's Andrew Billings. Billings has enormous upside, as he doesn't even turn 21 until next month, and, as I said, the Rams would not be choosing a D-lineman at #15 with the idea that such a player would be a major contributor in 2016. Another pick that would not lack in controversy would be Ole Miss' Robert Nkemdiche, whom many thought was a shoo-in to be chosen among the top five picks of the draft in the middle of the college football season. But an odd incident in December has potentially hurt his stock, where Nkemdiche fell from a hotel window, apparently under the influence of marijuana, and was charged with drug possession. (For the record, I can't see how Nkemdiche slips past the Rex Ryan-led Buffalo Bills at #19.) Other DT's that stand strong chances to be first round picks include another Alabama product, Jarran Reed, Louisville's Sheldon Rankins, and UCLA's Kenny Clark.
Certainly, the Rams will have a lot to consider when their turn comes up at #15 in the first round (assuming that there's no trade). There's a lot of merit to the BPA strategy, and if the Rams do take a D-lineman, it's obvious that it's a look to their future. But I believe it's important to consider that this Rams team, under Jeff Fisher, has not been able to get over the hump. They have built a very good defense under his watch, which he deserves much of the credit for. But they have gone 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10 and 7-9, in order, in his 4 seasons as head coach. If they take a D-lineman at #15, they are essentially punting their first round pick, in terms of 2016 impact, to 2017. In my judgment, I don't think they can afford to do that. They have glaring needs at QB and WR, and if players at those positions are at least close to the BPA, I think that's the prudent course of action.
- The Quarterbacks
- The Pass-Catchers
Laquon Treadwell, out of Ole Miss, had a fantastic 2015 season in college, which was no small feat. I say this because he suffered a pretty gruesome injury in November of 2014. If you're a college football fan, you might remember him getting awkwardly tackled from behind at the 1-yard line late in that game against Auburn, causing a broken tibia and dislocated ankle. But the 20-year-old junior came back with a vengeance last year, reeling in 82 passes for 1,153 yards and 11 TD's. At 6'2 and 220 pounds, he has ideal size to make contested, jump ball-type of catches, and he certainly profiles as an ideal red zone target. He made plenty of big plays down the field despite his lack of blazing speed, too. The biggest knocks on him are the lack of speed, and that some scouts think he may not be able to separate at the NFL level. I've seen a lot of Dez Bryant comparisons when it comes to Treadwell, but I've also seen some Kenny Britt comparisons from detractors. I don't consider this to be a bad thing; Britt was really starting to come into his own in the NFL, before his own knee injury (he's never been the same since). At 20 years old--he won't turn 21 until June--Treadwell might still have some untapped upside. And I would be remiss if I failed to mention that recent WR's with prolific production in the SEC have gone on to look good in the NFL: Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, and Mike Evans are all examples.
If you want to talk about really prolific production, look no further than Baylor's Corey Coleman. The 21-year-old redshirt junior (who turns 22 in July) pulled down 74 passes for 1,363 yards in 2015, including a whopping 20 TD's. And he was on a pace even more scintillating than that, before Baylor suffered injuries to both its starting and second-string QB's. Coleman is not big like Treadwell, as he is 5'11 and about 190 pounds. But he is lightning-quick and super-fast, and with his size, scouts most optimistic about him see a lot of Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown in his game. In the NFL, Beckham and Brown have had no problem being go-to pass-catchers, guys that are capable of running crisp routes to move the chains on 3rd downs, as well as getting deep for big plays. At Baylor, Coleman certainly was a terror both near the line of scrimmage and deep down the field, too. He's known as a tough competitor that fights for the football in tight spots. And he wasn't just a one-year college wonder; in 2014 as a redshirt sophomore, he had 64 catches for 1,119 yards and 11 TD's. Detractors might point to the Baylor offense for propping up offensive statistics, but if Coleman were 6'2 instead of 5'11, he would probably be the consensus #1 WR on the board. He's likely to see his stock rise after the Draft combine, as he has previously run a 4.38 40-yard time, and he has a recorded time of 6.62 seconds in the three-cone drill; that time would have beaten every WR at last year's combine. Oh, and he has a 40-inch vertical leap, as well.
Ohio State's Michael Thomas (a local product out of Taft High School in Woodland Hills) could be another possibility at #15 if the Rams go with a WR. A 21-year-old who turns 22 in August, Thomas, like Treadwell, has ideal size that most NFL teams covet. Thomas, at 6'3 and 210 pounds, has drawn comparisons from scouts to another Thomas...Demaryius Thomas. Both guys are big WR's that have the ability to pick up yards after the catch due to quick bursts of acceleration, particularly on short passes near the line of scrimmage. Playing in Urban Meyer's run-based offense, Thomas didn't have the chances to put up the kind of huge numbers that some others did. Nevertheless, he still managed 56 receptions for 781 yards and 9 TD's in 2015. His 2014 was quite similar, with 54 receptions for 799 yards and 9 TD's.
One final WR that could draw the Rams' interest at #15 is TCU's Josh Doctson. He combines the height of Treadwell and Thomas (Doctson is 6'3 and 195 pounds) with the productivity of Treadwell and Coleman, as Doctson posted 79 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 TD's in 2015 for the Horned Frogs. He's also similar to Treadwell in that he's not a speed demon and won't be breaking any records at the 40-yard dash at the Combine. That said, he's drawn some DeAndre Hopkins comparisons from scouts, who note that Doctson, despite that blazing speed, has good hands, good ball skills, and good route-running and separation skills. Like Coleman, Doctson will have those who say that he's racked up numbers in the souped-up offenses of the Big 12, and another thing to consider is that Doctson is going to be 23 this year, making him a little bit older than the typical rookie.
- The Offensive Linemen
- The Defensive Backs
- The Linebackers
- The Defensive Linemen/Edge Rushers
So perhaps beefing up the D-line isn't such an outlandish idea to the Rams. And there are an abundance of quality D-linemen and edge rushers in this draft, so if that's the direction the Rams really want to go, there will be quality available at #15. Ohio State's Joey Bosa will be long-gone by #15, and Oregon's DeForest Buckner is very likely to be, as well. If defensive end Noah Spence is available, he will be an interesting case for the Rams. He played in 2015 at Eastern Kentucky, but some will remember that he formerly played for Ohio State before he was suspended indefinitely by the Big 10 for failing two drug tests, prompting his transfer to Eastern Kentucky. On game tape alone, Spence is a top-10 talent. But the character concerns are obvious here (he also didn't endear himself to many in the NFL community with his Senior Bowl interviews). That said, we've seen that the Rams are willing to take chances on players. They did it with Janoris Jenkins, and they even did it with Michael Sam (different reasons for both, but you get the idea). Ohio State's Darron Lee, Georgia's Leonard Floyd, Clemson's Shaq Lawson, and Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah have great potential as pass rushers. And if you love defensive tackles, well, this draft is loaded with them. Alabama's A'Shawn Robinson has a decent chance to go in the top 10, and I could see the Rams being intrigued by Baylor's Andrew Billings. Billings has enormous upside, as he doesn't even turn 21 until next month, and, as I said, the Rams would not be choosing a D-lineman at #15 with the idea that such a player would be a major contributor in 2016. Another pick that would not lack in controversy would be Ole Miss' Robert Nkemdiche, whom many thought was a shoo-in to be chosen among the top five picks of the draft in the middle of the college football season. But an odd incident in December has potentially hurt his stock, where Nkemdiche fell from a hotel window, apparently under the influence of marijuana, and was charged with drug possession. (For the record, I can't see how Nkemdiche slips past the Rex Ryan-led Buffalo Bills at #19.) Other DT's that stand strong chances to be first round picks include another Alabama product, Jarran Reed, Louisville's Sheldon Rankins, and UCLA's Kenny Clark.
Certainly, the Rams will have a lot to consider when their turn comes up at #15 in the first round (assuming that there's no trade). There's a lot of merit to the BPA strategy, and if the Rams do take a D-lineman, it's obvious that it's a look to their future. But I believe it's important to consider that this Rams team, under Jeff Fisher, has not been able to get over the hump. They have built a very good defense under his watch, which he deserves much of the credit for. But they have gone 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10 and 7-9, in order, in his 4 seasons as head coach. If they take a D-lineman at #15, they are essentially punting their first round pick, in terms of 2016 impact, to 2017. In my judgment, I don't think they can afford to do that. They have glaring needs at QB and WR, and if players at those positions are at least close to the BPA, I think that's the prudent course of action.
Thursday, February 4, 2016
RGIII To Play QB For the L.A. Rams In 2016?
After a 22-year absence, the Rams will be playing football in Los Angeles in 2016. We know that the team has a playoff-caliber defense in place, and we certainly know that the Rams can rush the passer. We know that they have a running back that's capable of carrying an offense in Todd Gurley. But when the Rams take the field at the Coliseum for the first time in 2016, what we don't know is the following question: who will be playing quarterback? There's been a lot of talk about this in the news (thanks, Adam Schefter), so let's take a look at some potential QB options for the Rams.
Another backup QB that will be in the last year of his rookie deal in 2016 is Geno Smith, and hey, wouldn't it be fun to reunite Tavon Austin with his college QB at West Virginia? In all seriousness, it's not like the 25-year-old Smith doesn't have talent, though he's obviously been quite up-and-down (probably more down, to be sure) in his short career. With the Jets likely to commit to Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets are going to have to ask themselves if they see Smith in their long-term plans. (The Jets did draft Bryce Petty, another former Baylor star QB, in the 4th round last year.) If they don't, perhaps they could see what they can fetch for him, similar to Tampa Bay's situation. With a high draft pedigree and with arm talent, stranger things have happened. Of course we've seen the downside, but we're looking for upside here from backups.
If I were deciding between these two guys, I would lean towards the former Baylor star. First off, Griffin is 3 years younger. He's also going to be 3 and a half years removed from that ACL surgery when OTA's roll around in 2016. And I've always thought that he was a better passer than Kaepernick, whom I believe has had more problems with basic accuracy, and the numbers would merit that out (Kaep has completed 60% of his passes in his career, with Griffin at 64%). Kaepernick-backers can point to his larger stature as a reason to suggest that he's less likely to get injured over time, and that there's a good chance that RGIII will simply never be the same after that knee injury. And yes, that's certainly possible. But if picking between the two, my gut tells me that Griffin is the more likely acquisition for the Rams. For one, there's still a chance that the 49ers hold onto Kaepernick, and for another, Griffin would almost certainly cost less (both in money and in possible draft pick cost, as Kaepernick might fetch a mid-round pick if the 49ers try to drum up a bidding war for him). Either guy, though, would bring both star power (even if those stars have dimmed) and potential upside.
Like so many of you, I'm excited that Rams football is back in L.A. I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you over the coming days, weeks, months, and, if the fates will allow, years. Feel free to contact me on Twitter (my handle is @TC_Hughes), and I appreciate, in advance, your thoughts as well.
- The Returning Options
- A New Sheriff In L.A.?
- Is Denver's Other QB An Option?
- Backup QB Options
Another backup QB that will be in the last year of his rookie deal in 2016 is Geno Smith, and hey, wouldn't it be fun to reunite Tavon Austin with his college QB at West Virginia? In all seriousness, it's not like the 25-year-old Smith doesn't have talent, though he's obviously been quite up-and-down (probably more down, to be sure) in his short career. With the Jets likely to commit to Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets are going to have to ask themselves if they see Smith in their long-term plans. (The Jets did draft Bryce Petty, another former Baylor star QB, in the 4th round last year.) If they don't, perhaps they could see what they can fetch for him, similar to Tampa Bay's situation. With a high draft pedigree and with arm talent, stranger things have happened. Of course we've seen the downside, but we're looking for upside here from backups.
- Reclamation Projects
If I were deciding between these two guys, I would lean towards the former Baylor star. First off, Griffin is 3 years younger. He's also going to be 3 and a half years removed from that ACL surgery when OTA's roll around in 2016. And I've always thought that he was a better passer than Kaepernick, whom I believe has had more problems with basic accuracy, and the numbers would merit that out (Kaep has completed 60% of his passes in his career, with Griffin at 64%). Kaepernick-backers can point to his larger stature as a reason to suggest that he's less likely to get injured over time, and that there's a good chance that RGIII will simply never be the same after that knee injury. And yes, that's certainly possible. But if picking between the two, my gut tells me that Griffin is the more likely acquisition for the Rams. For one, there's still a chance that the 49ers hold onto Kaepernick, and for another, Griffin would almost certainly cost less (both in money and in possible draft pick cost, as Kaepernick might fetch a mid-round pick if the 49ers try to drum up a bidding war for him). Either guy, though, would bring both star power (even if those stars have dimmed) and potential upside.
- Looking To The Draft
Like so many of you, I'm excited that Rams football is back in L.A. I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you over the coming days, weeks, months, and, if the fates will allow, years. Feel free to contact me on Twitter (my handle is @TC_Hughes), and I appreciate, in advance, your thoughts as well.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)