Friday, February 19, 2016

Laurinaitis, Cook, Long Released

I wrote recently that TE Jared Cook was a no-brainer to get cut, and that DE Chris Long was also not long (see what I did there?) for the roster in 2016.  Indeed, both players were cut today, but the mild surprise is the release of MLB James Laurinaitis.  I spoke of how Laurinaitis was going to turn 30 in December and that, perhaps, his salary for 2017 would be too prohibitive, and that it wouldn't be out of the question for the team to use the #15 overall pick on a linebacker, with an eye on replacing him.  But the Rams decided that the Ohio State product was expendable even for 2016, and so the man who played 99.7% of the Rams' defensive snaps in his career will be playing elsewhere. 

ESPN NFL Nation reporter Nick Wagoner believes that the Rams will now move Alec Ogletree to MLB (that's middle linebacker; Ogletree is not getting moved to major league baseball), and attempt to re-sign Mark Barron to play weak-side linebacker.  Barron, of course, was drafted by Tampa Bay at safety, but never quite lived up to expectations there.  He fared better with the Rams, who used him in more of a linebacker/safety hybrid role.  The Rams, I'm sure, are hoping that moving Ogletree inside will result in something similar to the positive effect that moving Clay Matthews inside had on the Green Bay defense.  In looking at my last article, on the subject of potential linebackers in the draft, perhaps the chances of drafting a guy like Alabama's Reggie Ragland at #15 just went up ever-so-slightly, although I still view that as unlikely.

The moves by the Rams today cleared about $24MM in cap room, and the team is well-positioned heading into free agency, with more than $50MM in total cap space now.  It will be interesting to see how the team attacks free agency.  There's a vacancy for a starting safety; could the Rams ask Eric Weddle, late of the Chargers, to move just a little bit north?  The interior of the offensive line could use improving, and the top free agent guard available is Kelechi Osemele of the Ravens, who is still just 26 years old.  The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiek notes that the Ravens will have a hard time re-signing Osemele at the price he will command, and that if they do pony up for him, it will likely come at the expense of releasing LT Eugene Monroe.  It's also worth noting that NFL Network's Ian Rapoport tweeted today "there's a chance" that the Bears don't apply the franchise tag to WR Alshon Jeffery.  I still have a hard time imagining this, but if this does indeed happen, and Jeffery hits the open market, the Rams should run, not walk, to his agent with an offer.

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Another Defensive Lineman at #15?

It's time to take a look at what the Rams might do with their first round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, the #15 overall selection.  Some teams steadfastly adhere to a best player available (BPA) strategy, while others take into account their team's needs a little bit more.  In looking at recent history, the Rams took Todd Gurley last year at #10 overall; some considered it a reach, but they had him as the #1 player on their draft board, so that was clearly a BPA pick.  (And Tre Mason was coming off a solid rookie season where he averaged 4.3 YPC.)  The team definitely reached on Oregon State's Sean Mannion in the third round last year; there's no way the signal-caller was the BPA at that time, but the lack of QB depth on the roster caused them to draft for need in that spot.  And in the 2014 Draft, the Rams had two first round picks, at #2 and #13 overall.  At #2 they took offensive tackle Greg Robinson, which was their top-rated player and also happened to fill a need; at #13 they took defensive tackle Aaron Donald, which added to an already talent-laden defensive front.  In looking at the Rams right now, the strength of their team is still that defensive front.  So would they actually take another defensive lineman in the 2016 Draft, despite other clear areas of need?  If a D-lineman were the BPA, I don't think you can completely rule it out.  That said, let's take a look at the most likely areas that the Rams will be looking to with the #15 pick, safe in the knowledge that they won't be taking another RB here (sorry, Ezekiel Elliot fans).

  • The Quarterbacks
It's certainly no secret that the Rams are in obvious need of a franchise QB, and I discussed at length some potential options in my previous article.  Although there's a strong chance that Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, and Paxton Lynch will all be gone by pick #15, you would have to think that the Rams would think long and hard about drafting one of them if they were still available.  It would simply come down to their draft grade on each player.  If only one of these guys were left and the Rams did not have a high grade on the player, I don't think they would pull the trigger here, and rightfully so.  If they didn't think there was a large gap between whichever guy was left and the next tier of QB's, the smart thing to do would be to take the BPA and then perhaps look at QB with one of their two second-round picks.  The next potential tier of QB's include Connor Cook, Christian Hackenberg, and perhaps Cardale Jones (who will probably be a polarizing prospect).

  • The Pass-Catchers
Finding the right solution at QB is the most important order of business for the Rams, but not far behind is the need for a trusted pass-catching option.  The Rams do not have anyone on their roster that is a player that you can rely on when it's 3rd down and it's time to move the chains, or when they are in the red zone and need a TD.  It's great that they seemed to figure out how to deploy Tavon Austin last season, but he's a gadget player and not a receiver that you can depend on to run savvy routes on 3rd and 7 time after time, nor does he have the ideal size to fight for tightly-contested catches in close quarters.  As for the other WR's on the roster, with apologies to Kenny Britt and Bradley Marquez, they aren't close to dependable options.  At TE, Lance Kendricks is more of a blocker, and Jared Cook has been a colossal bust and will almost certainly be cut.  In looking at the draft, it's important to note that the tight end position is often considered to be the most difficult transition from college to the NFL, and that rookie tight ends very, very rarely make a noticeable impact.   In addition, I haven't seen a single mock draft where a TE is taken in the first round.  (I have seen Arkansas TE Hunter Henry mocked in the second round, sometimes to the Rams in fact, but he's not realistically in play at #15.)  Therefore, for the purpose of this exercise, let's talk about the WR's that could be available at #15.

Laquon Treadwell, out of Ole Miss, had a fantastic 2015 season in college, which was no small feat.  I say this because he suffered a pretty gruesome injury in November of 2014.  If you're a college football fan, you might remember him getting awkwardly tackled from behind at the 1-yard line late in that game against Auburn, causing a broken tibia and dislocated ankle.  But the 20-year-old junior came back with a vengeance last year, reeling in 82 passes for 1,153 yards and 11 TD's.  At 6'2 and 220 pounds, he has ideal size to make contested, jump ball-type of catches, and he certainly profiles as an ideal red zone target.  He made plenty of big plays down the field despite his lack of blazing speed, too.  The biggest knocks on him are the lack of speed, and that some scouts think he may not be able to separate at the NFL level.  I've seen a lot of Dez Bryant comparisons when it comes to Treadwell, but I've also seen some Kenny Britt comparisons from detractors.  I don't consider this to be a bad thing; Britt was really starting to come into his own in the NFL, before his own knee injury (he's never been the same since).  At 20 years old--he won't turn 21 until June--Treadwell might still have some untapped upside.  And I would be remiss if I failed to mention that recent WR's with prolific production in the SEC have gone on to look good in the NFL:  Julio Jones, Amari Cooper, Odell Beckham, Jarvis Landry, Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, and Mike Evans are all examples. 

If you want to talk about really prolific production, look no further than Baylor's Corey Coleman.  The 21-year-old redshirt junior (who turns 22 in July) pulled down 74 passes for 1,363 yards in 2015, including a whopping 20 TD's.  And he was on a pace even more scintillating than that, before Baylor suffered injuries to both its starting and second-string QB's.  Coleman is not big like Treadwell, as he is 5'11 and about 190 pounds.  But he is lightning-quick and super-fast, and with his size, scouts most optimistic about him see a lot of Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown in his game.  In the NFL, Beckham and Brown have had no problem being go-to pass-catchers, guys that are capable of running crisp routes to move the chains on 3rd downs, as well as getting deep for big plays.  At Baylor, Coleman certainly was a terror both near the line of scrimmage and deep down the field, too.  He's known as a tough competitor that fights for the football in tight spots.  And he wasn't just a one-year college wonder; in 2014 as a redshirt sophomore, he had 64 catches for 1,119 yards and 11 TD's.  Detractors might point to the Baylor offense for propping up offensive statistics, but if Coleman were 6'2 instead of 5'11, he would probably be the consensus #1 WR on the board.  He's likely to see his stock rise after the Draft combine, as he has previously run a 4.38 40-yard time, and he has a recorded time of 6.62 seconds in the three-cone drill; that time would have beaten every WR at last year's combine.  Oh, and he has a 40-inch vertical leap, as well. 

Ohio State's Michael Thomas (a local product out of Taft High School in Woodland Hills) could be another possibility at #15 if the Rams go with a WR.  A 21-year-old who turns 22 in August, Thomas, like Treadwell, has ideal size that most NFL teams covet.  Thomas, at 6'3 and 210 pounds, has drawn comparisons from scouts to another Thomas...Demaryius Thomas.  Both guys are big WR's that have the ability to pick up yards after the catch due to quick bursts of acceleration, particularly on short passes near the line of scrimmage.  Playing in Urban Meyer's run-based offense, Thomas didn't have the chances to put up the kind of huge numbers that some others did.  Nevertheless, he still managed 56 receptions for 781 yards and 9 TD's in 2015.  His 2014 was quite similar, with 54 receptions for 799 yards and 9 TD's. 

One final WR that could draw the Rams' interest at #15 is TCU's Josh Doctson.  He combines the height of Treadwell and Thomas (Doctson is 6'3 and 195 pounds) with the productivity of Treadwell and Coleman, as Doctson posted 79 receptions for 1,327 yards and 14 TD's in 2015 for the Horned Frogs.  He's also similar to Treadwell in that he's not a speed demon and won't be breaking any records at the 40-yard dash at the Combine.  That said, he's drawn some DeAndre Hopkins comparisons from scouts, who note that Doctson, despite that blazing speed, has good hands, good ball skills, and good route-running and separation skills.  Like Coleman, Doctson will have those who say that he's racked up numbers in the souped-up offenses of the Big 12, and another thing to consider is that Doctson is going to be 23 this year, making him a little bit older than the typical rookie.

  • The Offensive Linemen
While I suppose you can't rule it out, it's not likely that the Rams will use the #15 overall pick on an offensive lineman.  Greg Robinson has had his ups and downs in his first 2 seasons in the NFL, but the Rams aren't about to give up on his potential, and he doesn't even turn 24 until October.  He'll be at left tackle again in 2016.  As for right tackle, the Rams look like they hit a home run (or at least a triple) with Rob Havenstein, a fine pick by GM Les Snead in the second round in last year's draft.  Havenstein was a mauling run blocker in his rookie season (proudly carrying on the Wisconsin tradition of offensive linemen), and not only that, he didn't allow a single sack in pass protection all season.  So while it's possible that a top offensive tackle could fall to #15, given the presence of Robinson and Havenstein, it's highly unlikely that the Rams go O-Line here.  Laremy Tunsil, the consensus top tackle, is not going to fall to #15, and with so many other needs, and youth entrenched at LT and RT, it just wouldn't be wise to pick a tackle here.  So the question becomes, could a guard (or center) be in play with this pick?  I'll keep this short:  the answer is "very unlikely."  Kansas State's Cody Whitehair and LSU's Vadal Alexander are the only players (both guards) who are anywhere close to Round 1 in all of the mock drafts that I have seen.  It's much more likely that the Rams would look at guards or centers later in the draft, as well as in free agency.

  • The Defensive Backs
Now we're getting into the defensive side of the ball, which was the strength of the team last season.  The strong pass rush from the defensive line was not a surprise, of course, but the Rams played much-improved pass defense last season, too.  But both starting cornerbacks, Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson, are free agents.  And while one of them could be retained via the franchise tag (or, perhaps, the transition tag), it's very possible that both of them won't be back.  The Rams do have E.J. Gaines coming back from a foot injury, and he'll be available (barring another injury) in 2016; he started 15 games as a rookie in 2014.  They also have Lamarcus Joyner, who is a slot cornerback/safety.  In looking at the safety position, T.J. McDonald will be back as a starter at strong safety, but the team could have a need for a starting free safety.  Jalen Ramsey (Florida State, S/CB) and Vernon Hargreaves (CB, Florida) seem quite likely to be gone by #15, but perhaps the Rams could fall in love with Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander or Ohio State CB Eli Apple.  All in all, barring a fall for Hargreaves or a rise from Alexander, choosing a DB at #15 seems unlikely.

  • The Linebackers
The Rams are pretty well-stocked at linebacker, with the likes of Alec Ogletree, James Laurinaitis, and Akeem Ayers.  But Laurinatitis will be 30 in December, and while he's due a reasonable $5.8MM for 2016, it's worth noting that he's due $6.1MM in 2017 and a $2MM roster bonus as well.  In other words, if there were a highly-regarded linebacker that's a tackling machine that is available at pick #15, perhaps the Rams would take a look at that, with an eye towards replacing Laurinaitis in 2017.  With UCLA's Myles Jack almost certain to go in the top 10, the immediate name that comes to mind, whom I have seen mocked just after the Rams choose at #15, is Alabama's Reggie Ragland.  Notre Dame fans can tell you that Jaylon Smith, who won the Butkus Award as college football's best linebacker, probably would have been a top 10 pick in the draft, if not for that serious knee injury he suffered in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State.  He's still very likely to be a first rounder, even though he's not likely to play until late in the 2016 season, at best.  He would essentially be taking a redshirt year if the Rams took him, so I view that as incredibly unlikely, but the upside is undeniable.  So, too, is the downside, coming off his injury. 

  • The Defensive Linemen/Edge Rushers
Ah, yes.  Finally, we've come to the area where the Rams are loaded the most.  At first glance, this seems crazy, right?  The Rams, a team with Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn (and Chris Long and William Hayes and Nick Fairley), taking a defensive lineman?  Really?  Clearly, if they took one in this year's draft, that player wouldn't get much playing time in 2016, barring injury.  It would be a move for the future, and it's obvious that the Rams believe in having a strong defensive line.  Donald and Quinn are locked up to long-term deals, but Brockers is a free agent after the 2016 season.  Fairley and Hayes are free agents right now, and as for Long, he's due an untenable $14.25MM in 2016, and if they released him, it would only leave a $2.5MM dead money hit on the salary cap.  It's possible Long could be brought back at a reduced rate, but there's no way he's getting that $14.25MM, given that he lost his starting job to Hayes in 2015. 

So perhaps beefing up the D-line isn't such an outlandish idea to the Rams.  And there are an abundance of quality D-linemen and edge rushers in this draft, so if that's the direction the Rams really want to go, there will be quality available at #15.  Ohio State's Joey Bosa will be long-gone by #15, and Oregon's DeForest Buckner is very likely to be, as well.  If defensive end Noah Spence is available, he will be an interesting case for the Rams.  He played in 2015 at Eastern Kentucky, but some will remember that he formerly played for Ohio State before he was suspended indefinitely by the Big 10 for failing two drug tests, prompting his transfer to Eastern Kentucky.  On game tape alone, Spence is a top-10 talent.  But the character concerns are obvious here (he also didn't endear himself to many in the NFL community with his Senior Bowl interviews).  That said, we've seen that the Rams are willing to take chances on players.  They did it with Janoris Jenkins, and they even did it with Michael Sam (different reasons for both, but you get the idea).  Ohio State's Darron Lee, Georgia's Leonard Floyd, Clemson's Shaq Lawson, and Oklahoma State's Emmanuel Ogbah have great potential as pass rushers.  And if you love defensive tackles, well, this draft is loaded with them.  Alabama's A'Shawn Robinson has a decent chance to go in the top 10, and I could see the Rams being intrigued by Baylor's Andrew Billings.  Billings has enormous upside, as he doesn't even turn 21 until next month, and, as I said, the Rams would not be choosing a D-lineman at #15 with the idea that such a player would be a major contributor in 2016.  Another pick that would not lack in controversy would be Ole Miss' Robert Nkemdiche, whom many thought was a shoo-in to be chosen among the top five picks of the draft in the middle of the college football season.  But an odd incident in December has potentially hurt his stock, where Nkemdiche fell from a hotel window, apparently under the influence of marijuana, and was charged with drug possession.  (For the record, I can't see how Nkemdiche slips past the Rex Ryan-led Buffalo Bills at #19.)  Other DT's that stand strong chances to be first round picks include another Alabama product, Jarran Reed, Louisville's Sheldon Rankins, and UCLA's Kenny Clark.

Certainly, the Rams will have a lot to consider when their turn comes up at #15 in the first round (assuming that there's no trade).  There's a lot of merit to the BPA strategy, and if the Rams do take a D-lineman, it's obvious that it's a look to their future.  But I believe it's important to consider that this Rams team, under Jeff Fisher, has not been able to get over the hump.  They have built a very good defense under his watch, which he deserves much of the credit for.  But they have gone 7-8-1, 7-9, 6-10 and 7-9, in order, in his 4 seasons as head coach.  If they take a D-lineman at #15, they are essentially punting their first round pick, in terms of 2016 impact, to 2017.  In my judgment, I don't think they can afford to do that.  They have glaring needs at QB and WR, and if players at those positions are at least close to the BPA, I think that's the prudent course of action. 
 

Thursday, February 4, 2016

RGIII To Play QB For the L.A. Rams In 2016?

After a 22-year absence, the Rams will be playing football in Los Angeles in 2016.  We know that the team has a playoff-caliber defense in place, and we certainly know that the Rams can rush the passer.  We know that they have a running back that's capable of carrying an offense in Todd Gurley.  But when the Rams take the field at the Coliseum for the first time in 2016, what we don't know is the following question:  who will be playing quarterback?  There's been a lot of talk about this in the news (thanks, Adam Schefter), so let's take a look at some potential QB options for the Rams.

  • The Returning Options
We can start with the incumbents, Nick Foles and Case Keenum.  Foles, after being swapped for Sam Bradford, was signed to a deal that GM Les Snead is already regretting.  The Rams gave Foles $13.8MM guaranteed, and for 2016 he has a $6MM roster bonus that would be fully guaranteed as of March 16.  Yes, the team could cut him, but that would create an $8MM dead money hit on the cap.  So either way, the Rams can't get off scot-free here.  It would seem particularly counter-productive to give him his roster bonus and then cut him afterward, that's for sure.  (It is true that the Rams picked up a 2nd round pick in the 2016 draft as part of the Bradford trade, it should be noted.)  Foles was one of the worst starting QB's in football last season, starting 11 games and completing only 56% of his passes, while picking up a paltry 6.1 yards per attempt.  He also only tossed 7 TD passes, while being picked off 11 times.  Coach Jeff Fisher soured on Foles so much that he turned to former Texans castoff Keenum, and, well, Keenum was better than Foles, at least.  Keenum completed 61% of his throws for 6.6 YPA; he had 4 TD's and 1 INT.  Fisher, for his part, said that Keenum would go into the offseason as the starter, and Snead said that Keenum "definitely" will be back next season, as a restricted free agent.  Ram fans should be hoping that Keenum returns as the backup, and that Foles isn't the starter, because he may have been the worst starting QB in the NFL in 2015.

  • A New Sheriff In L.A.?
If Foles wasn't the worst starting QB in the league in 2015, Peyton Manning might have been.  It's incredibly rare that a good starting QB can become available for another team, even if they are a free agent; teams almost always hold onto those guys, and for good reason, either with a new contract or via the franchise tag.  So in asking the question of how the Rams can try to find an upgrade at the QB position, we're basically looking at reclamation projects, backup QB's that could be diamond-in-the-rough types, or the draft.  With Adam Schefter's report that the Rams could take a look at Peyton Manning, let's get that one out of the way first.  (It's widely assumed that if Manning doesn't retire, the Broncos won't be picking up his $19MM option for 2016.)  Manning would certainly qualify as a reclamation project, as he would be a 40-year-old QB in 2016, and coming off a 2015 season that appeared to show that he has almost no arm strength left.  And when your arm talent is lacking, you better be completing a high percentage of passes; Manning only completed 60% of his throws this season, and his TD/INT ratio was a scary 9/17.  (His 6.8 YPA did barely out-do Keenum.)  Given what we've seen out of Manning dating back to the late stages of the 2014 season, it's hard to imagine him having a rejuvenation in L.A.  Could he be a possible improvement on the likes of Keenum and Foles?  Sure, that's possible.  Might he help generate excitement for the fans?  That's possible as well.  But even though Jeff Fisher would like his QB to be an effective game-manager, the Rams need to be aiming higher.  It's great to just be able to line up and try to impose your will on the ground against overmatched teams that can't contain Gurley, but there are plenty of games where you need your QB to make plays.  When the Rams needed that this season, they were toast.  This all said, since Manning is essentially a game-manager now, and is like a trusted on-field coach that can diagnose defenses and check into the right run audibles, I could see the Rams taking a serious look at him--if he were serious about continuing his career--with the star power being an added bonus in the first season back in L.A.  If the Broncos win the Super Bowl, though, there's no way he's going to have a better ending to his career than riding off into the winning sunset, a la John Elway.

  • Is Denver's Other QB An Option?
So outside of The Sheriff, are there NFL starting quarterbacks that could be realistic fits?  I just don't see it.  The Redskins aren't letting Kirk Cousins get away, and ditto the Jets with Ryan Fitzpatrick (a former Ram draftee in 2005).  Drew Brees?  There's no way the Saints don't work something out with him, now that Sean Payton's status has been confirmed.  Bradford?  Yeah, not happening.  (Nor should it, by the way!)  Josh McCown?  Apart from the fact that he's injury-prone and will be 37 in July, his contract is affordable and with the utter uncertainty surrounding the Browns at the QB position, he'll almost certainly be back, at least as a placeholder (the Browns have the #2 overall pick and could certainly take a QB).  Brian Hoyer?  He also has a relatively cheap contract, and the Texans only have Tom Savage behind him.  In theory, Denver's other QB, Brock Osweiler, could be available, since he's a free agent.  However, Denver likely views him as their future; it just remains to be seen if they would give him a big contract.  And that begs the question:  could a QB-needy team such as the Rams step up with a huge offer that the Broncos would be hesitant to match?  It just seems so unlikely, given that the Broncos will be coming off a Super Bowl appearance and would be in the same murky QB waters that the Rams find themselves in now, if they chose to move on from Osweiler.  The only realistic way for the Rams to even have a chance at Osweiler would be to pay him elite QB money, which would make the Broncos either have to commit to him with a similar offer, or franchise tag him.  And that would mean paying a guy with all of 7 career starts close to $20MM for 2016.  Ultimately, it would take a huge leap of faith for a team to even have a chance to pry Osweiler away from the Broncos, and it's very unlikely.  Is a trade possible?  I suppose you never know, but trades involving starting QB's almost never happen in the NFL.  Heck, last year's Bradford-for-Foles trade was extremely rare.  So for those of you hoping for a trade for Jay Cutler or Ryan Tannehill, it's almost certainly not going to happen.

  • Backup QB Options
So this leaves us with possible reclamation projects and backups with some upside.  The Bills struck relative gold with Tyrod Taylor last offseason; he was Joe Flacco's backup in Baltimore, and pretty much any team could have signed him with a reasonable deal (he ended up with just $1.2MM guaranteed, and his base salary for 2016 is just $1MM, with a bit more available through incentives).  While it's likely that the Bills try to keep Taylor beyond 2016, can the Rams unearth a gem from the backup QB ranks, in a similar way to what Buffalo did?  One potential fit could be Mike Glennon.  With Jameis Winston obviously entrenched in Tampa Bay, and with Glennon on the last year of his rookie deal in 2016, it might behoove the Bucs to see what they can get for Glennon this offseason, when they try to involve as many teams as possible in any potential bidding for him.  I find it interesting that Tampa Bay GM Jason Licht publicly said, on Jan. 29, that it was unlikely that the team would move Glennon because they "would hate to be in a position where your quarterback goes down and then you’re basically throwing the towel in."  And while that might be true, the fact is that this is his last year under his rookie deal, and they obviously aren't going to be extending him for big money with Winston around.  If teams looking for a QB want to take a chance on him, could Tampa Bay really turn down a decent draft pick or two, particularly if they can fill their backup QB spot with someone else?  And we've seen before that when teams are open to trading a guy, it's smart business to publicly declare that they would have a hard time moving him, for leverage.  Glennon's completion percentage and YPA don't jump off the page in 19 games of NFL action, but he has thrown 29 TD's to only 15 INT's, and has shown flashes of nice arm strength as well.  At 26, he could be the type of guy that QB-needy teams take a chance on.

Another backup QB that will be in the last year of his rookie deal in 2016 is Geno Smith, and hey, wouldn't it be fun to reunite Tavon Austin with his college QB at West Virginia?  In all seriousness, it's not like the 25-year-old Smith doesn't have talent, though he's obviously been quite up-and-down (probably more down, to be sure) in his short career.  With the Jets likely to commit to Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets are going to have to ask themselves if they see Smith in their long-term plans.  (The Jets did draft Bryce Petty, another former Baylor star QB, in the 4th round last year.)  If they don't, perhaps they could see what they can fetch for him, similar to Tampa Bay's situation.  With a high draft pedigree and with arm talent, stranger things have happened.  Of course we've seen the downside, but we're looking for upside here from backups.

  •  Reclamation Projects
There are 3 obvious names floating around that would qualify as reclamation projects:  Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, and Johnny Manziel.  I'll immediately dismiss Johnny Football, folks.  There's just way, way, waaaaay too much going on there.  Toxic would be a good word to describe what's going on with him, and the Rams aren't going to be that desperate to find a solution.  So this leaves us with 2 guys that were once considered to be stars in the league, RGIII and Kaep.  Griffin is going to be released by the Redskins, so that's a formality.  He was scintillating in 2012, and severely regressed in '13 coming off that torn ACL injury.  I was surprised to find that in 2014, across 9 games, he actually completed 69% of his passes, and his 7.9 YPA wasn't much worse than his 8.1 mark as a rookie.  But he had a 4/6 TD/INT ratio, and he also lost 4 fumbles.  As we know, he didn't play at all this season.  As for Kaepernick, it's not as clear if he will be available, but given that he's due $13.9MM in '16 and given that he's apparently not happy in San Francisco, a trade or an outright release is certainly possible here.  Kaep, of course, took the league by storm in 2012, the season in which he took over for Alex Smith as the 49er starter and nearly took the team to a Super Bowl win.  In 2013, he showed plenty of promise as a dual-threat QB in his first full season as the starter.  But in 2014 there were signs of regression as a passer, and this season he fell off the proverbial cliff before losing his starting job to Blaine Gabbert, of all people.  So how much of Kaepernick's poor play in 2015 was due to his torn labrum?  Was he just regressing anyway?

If I were deciding between these two guys, I would lean towards the former Baylor star.  First off, Griffin is 3 years younger.  He's also going to be 3 and a half years removed from that ACL surgery when OTA's roll around in 2016.  And I've always thought that he was a better passer than Kaepernick, whom I believe has had more problems with basic accuracy, and the numbers would merit that out (Kaep has completed 60% of his passes in his career, with Griffin at 64%).  Kaepernick-backers can point to his larger stature as a reason to suggest that he's less likely to get injured over time, and that there's a good chance that RGIII will simply never be the same after that knee injury.  And yes, that's certainly possible.  But if picking between the two, my gut tells me that Griffin is the more likely acquisition for the Rams.  For one, there's still a chance that the 49ers hold onto Kaepernick, and for another, Griffin would almost certainly cost less (both in money and in possible draft pick cost, as Kaepernick might fetch a mid-round pick if the 49ers try to drum up a bidding war for him).  Either guy, though, would bring both star power (even if those stars have dimmed) and potential upside.

  • Looking To The Draft
The final avenue for improvement could lie with the 2016 NFL Draft.  The Rams did draft Oregon State QB Sean Mannion in the third round in last year's draft, a pick that was described as "arguably the worst pick" of the draft by Rotoworld.  (Yikes.)  The Rams have the #15 overall pick in this year's draft, as well as the #43 and #45 picks in the second round (thanks to the Bradford-Foles trade).  It would certainly seem plausible, then, that one of those three picks could be used on a quarterback.  The top three QB's in this year's class seem to be Cal's Jared Goff, North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, and Memphis' Paxton Lynch.  It's possible that all 3 of them will be gone by #15, but if not, perhaps the Rams will snap up whomever is left.  Otherwise, it's likely that they go best player available at #15, and they still might do that anyway, even if one of those three guys were available (if they didn't like one of them enough).  And, of course, they could still pick a QB with one of their two 2nd round picks, assuming they didn't go QB at #15.  Perhaps Michigan State's Connor Cook or Penn State's Christian Hackenberg could be considerations in the second round.  It's also possible that one of those guys could still be there at #76, which is the Rams' third round selection.  In this humble writer's opinion, the Rams desperately need to use one of their first 3 picks on a pass-catching weapon that can be a chain-mover on offense, whether that's a WR or a TE.  But that's another column for another time.

Like so many of you, I'm excited that Rams football is back in L.A.  I look forward to sharing my thoughts with you over the coming days, weeks, months, and, if the fates will allow, years.  Feel free to contact me on Twitter (my handle is @TC_Hughes), and I appreciate, in advance, your thoughts as well.